英语翻译Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1977) argued that contemp

英语翻译
Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1977) argued that contemporary international politics is a mosaic,composed of different issue areas each of which is characterized by diversified interdependent relations.As it is difficult to coordinate all these distinct interactions,relations among different issue areas have to be guided through institutions and regimes.Within them,countries can opt for coordinating their behaviors as cooperation becomes necessary.Indeed,thanks to institutions and regimes there are rules and regulations acknowledged,accepted,and abided by every country.According to the interdependence theorists,the relatively recent development of several international institutions in Asia,such as APEC,ASEAN,SCO,SAARC,and ARF,can be interpreted as a consciousness raising from Asian countries of the benefits they can experience deciding to coordinate their behaviors with the help of a suprastate body.①Within these institutions,Asian and non-Asian countries are currently demonstrating that it is possible to achieve agreements and compromises on several issues and,as a consequence,deepen integration and interrelation among them in a peaceful and consensus-based way.
The neorealists contrasted this picture with the hegemonic-stability theory.This theory gains more influence in the Asian scenario as the four countries this paper is taking into consideration,China,India,Pakistan,and the United States,are playing a careful role within these institutions.First outlined by Charles Kindleberger (1973),who identified the reasons of the depression of the 1930s in the lack of a stabilizing power,such as a leader state burdening the recession costs,this theory was expanded upon by Robert Gilpin (1981).② Gilpin argued that the international system can be in balance only when no state considers convenient changing it.Usually,the balance is guaranteed by the strongest country.However,the costs for maintaining the status quo can be very high,and sometimes they can become even higher than what the strongest country can effectively stand.In such a condition,if the equilibrium is not immediately and effectively restored,a hegemonic war can occur,ending in a new balance.Gilpin identified a set of three factors that can foreshadow a potential hegemonic war:a differential growth of power between countries,environmental variables (economic and technologic factors or infrastructure differences),and divergent internal variables.③ Any change in the balance of these factors can disturb or even smash the existing order; therefore a hegemonic war can break out ending with a new hegemon assuming the control of the new status quo.

罗伯特•基欧汉与约瑟夫•奈(1977) 认为,当代国际政治是模糊不清的,每一个不同地区的问题是由多元化的相互依存关系为特点的.因为很难协调这些不同的相互作用,故不同的问题领域的关系,而必须通过相关的机构和制度的指导.这其中,国家选择合作作为协调其行为就成为必要.事实上,由于机构和制度的公认的规则和规章被接受,所以每个国家都遵守.根据相互依存的理论,在一些国际机构近期在亚洲的发展,如亚太经合组织、东盟、上海合作组织、南盟和东盟地区论坛等,都可以理解为一种亚洲国家利益意识正在逐步提高,这得益于他们经验的提升：决定用一个联合机构来协调他们的行为.这些机构的出现表明,亚洲和非亚洲国家目前有可能实现若干问题的协议和妥协,因此,可能深化一体化在它们之间的相互关系以和平和共识为基础.
与新现实主义者形成对比的是与霸权稳定论.本文考虑到的是在亚洲,中国、印度、巴基斯坦和美国在这些机构中发挥的细致作用,则这个理论有更大的影响力.首先由查尔斯•金德尔伯格(1973)提出,20世纪30年代的经济大萧条使得缺乏一个可以保持权力稳定的领导者,这个理论,由罗伯特•吉尔平(1981) 扩展.吉尔平认为,国际制度可以平衡只有在没有国家认为有更方便的方法改变它.通常,这种平衡是需要实力最强的国家来保证.然而,维持现状的费用也非常高,有时甚至于最强大的国家也不能维持.在这种情况下,如果不立即恢复有效的均亨,则霸权的战争就可能会发生,直到一个新的平衡出现为止.吉尔平确定了以下三个因素集,可以预示潜在的霸权的战争：国家之间的权力增长的差异,环境变量（经济技术因素或基础设施的差异）,以及不同的内部变量.任何这些因素的变化可能破坏平衡,甚至打破现有的秩序,因此,霸权的战争可能爆发,直到出现一个新霸主来承担对现状的管制为止.