Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were,and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price.Energy conservation,a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy,energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.Software,consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production.For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973.The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that,if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year,compared with $13 in 1998,this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980.On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economies - to which heavy industry has shifted - have become more energy-intensive,and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that,unlike the rises in the 1970s,it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline.The economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago.In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%,and in 1979 by almost 30%.

丰富的经济体也减少对石油的依赖比,所以不敏感波动的石油价格.节约能源,改用其他燃料,减少繁重的重要性,能源密集型工业,减少石油消费.软件,咨询和移动电话的使用远远低于石油比钢或汽车生产.对于每一个美元的国内生产总值（不变价格）丰富的经济体中,目前使用了近50 ％的石油超过1973年.经合组织估计在其最新的经济展望报告认为,如果今年油价平均每桶22美元的全年美元, 13日在1998年,这将增加石油进口费用在富裕的经济体只有0.25-0.5 ％的国内生产总值.这是不到一个季度的收入损失在1974年或1980年.另一方面,进口石油的新兴经济体-其中重化工业已转向-已变得更加能源密集型的,因此可能是更严重的挤压.
更有理由不丧失睡眠的石油价格上涨的是,不同的是,在20世纪70年代上升,但并没有发生的背景是一般商品价格上涨和全球超过需求.相当一部分的世界刚刚摆脱经济衰退.经济学家的商品价格指数大致不变的是从去年同期.在1973年的商品价格上涨了70 ％ ,并于1979年的近30 ％ .