英语翻译ConclusionClues to China’s near-term political future ca

英语翻译
Conclusion
Clues to China’s near-term political future can be found not only in the overt
political behavior of its population but also in the composition and activities of
select social groups whose numbers are increasing.These factors suggest that
change,when it comes,is more apt to be initiated by the top political decisionmakers
than by the popular strata within society.Furthermore,the discontented
segments of the populace,those with the potential to become activists—ranging
from members of nongovernmental organizations,netizens,intellectuals,and
artists to peasants rioting over pollution or against the dispossession of their land,
people newly conscious of their rights,and those enraged by official corruption—
are too geographically dispersed to create broadly based influential movements.
Thus there seems to be little potential for organizational success,since many social
barriers separate the members of these groups.Besides,perilous risks await anyone
who would aspire to lead these groups in demanding sociopolitical change.
Therefore instead of predicting change to issue from any of these groups,I
looked at the place of each of them within society and their near-term prospects,
along with the regime’s stancees toward each of them.The government appears
set to concentrate on building its “harmonious society,” in part through the new
alliance with the upper strata of the population.At the same time,it will likely
use a growing portion of the state’s coffers to quiet those at the base—to keep
them minimally satisfied but still politically excluded.As a result,the Chinese
polity appears to be moving not toward democratization,in which numbers
count,but toward elitism.This,then,is a politics of complacency and scorn
among those in the social strata who matter,and a politics of the forlorn for
those who do not.

结论
短期内对中国的政治前途的线索,可以发现,不仅在公开
政治行为,但其人口的组成和活动
选择的人数越来越多的社会群体.这些因素表明,
变化,当它来了,更容易被最高政治决策者发起
而在社会中流行的阶层.此外,不满
阶层民众,那些有潜力成为活动家范围
来自非政府组织的成员,网民,知识分子和的
艺术家对环境污染或对他们的土地被剥夺农民暴动,
新意识到自己的权利,和那些人激怒了官员腐败
太地理分散,以建立基础广泛影响力的运动.
因此,似乎是组织成功的潜力不大,因为许多社会,
障碍分开这些群体的成员.此外,危险的风险,等待的人
他会渴望带领这些团体要求的社会政治变化.
因此,而不是预测的变化,从这些团体中的任何问题,我
看着他们每个人在社会中的地方和他们的近期前景,
随着政权的朝着他们每个人stancees.政府似乎
设置集中部分通过新的“和谐社会,建设”
联盟与人口的上层.同时,它可能会
用一个国家的财政收入的增长部分在基地保持安静的人
最低限度,他们感到满意,但仍然在政治上排除.因此,中国
政体似乎要走向民主化,在这数字
计数,但走向精英化.那么,这是自满和蔑视政治
在谁的问题在社会各阶层,和凄凉政治
那些不.