英语翻译China's economy is entering a period of slower growth an

英语翻译
China's economy is entering a period of slower growth and the government should heed the lessons of other countries
China's economy has enjoyed an annual growth of 10 percent over the past 30 years,but how long can such high-speed growth last?
According to studies by the Development Research Center of the State Council,China's growth pattern is similar to that of Germany,which experienced a slow down in the late 1960s,Japan,which experienced a slow down in the early 1970s,and South Korea,which experienced a slow down in the late 1990s.There are already signs emerging that China's growth rate will slow in the next few years.
First,infrastructure investment,the most important engine of growth,is declining as a proportion of total investment.In 2006,it was more than 30 percent,while it dropped to around 22 percent in 2011.As China's high growth rate is mainly driven by its huge investment in infrastructure,if infrastructure investment drops the growth rate will slow.
Second,in the last three years,the growth rate of the provinces and municipalities with good economic performance along the southeast coast,whose total GDP accounts for more than half of the national GDP,has lagged behind other regions.
Third,people are worried about potential risks in local governments' financing platforms and in the real estate market.To be more specific,people are concerned whether their investments in these areas will pay off.According to our research,the potential gains in these areas are not particularly great.
Taking all these signs into consideration,it seems the transition from high-speed growth to intermediate-speed growth may have already begun.
Although some may have a pessimistic view of this slow down,it is actually a normal pattern of economic growth.
However,some officials,especially those from local governments,believe the slowing down is a result of government policies,and that if we need to,we can introduce stimulus policies to speed up the growth rate.But this belief is incorrect.As the growth rate is already slowing,if we apply administrative means to speed up the growth rate,it may work for a short period but it will not last for long,and may even have severe unwanted consequences.For example,the government in Japan tried to stimulate its economy in the 1980s,but this led to asset bubbles and long-term economic recession.It is a lesson we should heed.
Our estimate for China's economic growth in the intermediate-speed period is around 6 to 7 percent,which the country has the potential to maintain for 10,15 or even 20 years.During the transition period over the next two to three years we hope to see a stable annual growth rate of 8 to 9 percent.

中国经济正进入一个增长缓慢的时期,政府应注意学习的其他国家的经验.
中国的经济在过去三十年每年增长百分之10,但这种高速增长能持续多久呢
根据国务院发展研究中心的研究,中国的增长模式类似于德国,他在60年代后期出现缓慢,日本在70年代早期缓慢,韩国在九十年代缓慢.这些都标志着中国将在未来的几年内出现增长速率变缓
首先,基础设施投资,最重要的增长引擎,是下降的比例总投资.在2006年超过30%,2011年跌到22%,因为高速增长有大型的基础设施投资推动,投资下降,速度将变缓.第二,在过去的三年中,各省市及经济效益好的东南沿海地区,其国内生产总值占国民生产总值的一半以上,增长速度已经落后于其他地区.
第三,人民担心地方政府融资平台和房地产市场中的潜在风险.具体地说,人们关心的是他们的投资能否获得回报.据调查,在这些区域的未来收益并不非常高
把所有这些迹象考虑在内,看起来高速增长向中速增长的转变已经开始
虽然有些人对他的变缓持消极观点,但这的确是经济增长的正常模式
不过一些官员,特别是出自当地政府的官员,认为变缓是国家政策的结果,并且如果我们需要,可以推行刺激政策以加速经济发展.但是这种观点是错误的.因为增长速度已经变缓,如果我们运用行政手段,加快增长速度,短时间内有效但不会维持很长时间,甚至可能产生严重的有害后果.例如,在上世纪80年代,日本政府试图刺激经济发展,但这导致了资产泡沫和长期的经济衰退.这是一个我们应当注意的教训
我们估计中国的经济增长速度在中速期约为6%-7%,我国有可能持续10年,15年甚至20年之久.在未来的2到3年内的转变期,我们希望看到年增长率稳定在8-9%