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英语翻译While supply is likely to exceed demand in 2009,Hopeflue

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英语翻译
While supply is likely to exceed demand in 2009,Hopefluent expects new home sale volumes to rise 20-33%y-o-y to~6.5-7.2m sqm GFA with a limited price cuts.Hopefluent estimates that a total of 80,000units will be available for sale(30k units from unsold inventory and 50k units of new supply),which is higher than the demand of 60,000units in 2008.New home supply will be dominated by small-to-mid-sized units with>50%supply coming from units with a size of50% and 21%of their land bank values in Guangzhou,respectively.
More price cuts in Beijing Hopefluent estimates that unsold inventory in Beijing will take>24 months to clear(based on 2008 take-up rates),which is the highest among key cities.This,together with supply from public housing would put Beijing residential property prices under substantial pressure.About 8.5m sqm GFA public housing will be developed in the next 3 years,of which 2m sqm GFA will be completed in 2009.This would represent some 12% of total market demand in 2007,which is not too small to be ignored.Recently,Hopson(754 HK,not rated)slashed the ASP of 48 units at Grand Joviality in Chaoyang district,a downdown location,by as much as 30% to RMB16,000/sqm.Among key cities,Guangzhou&Shanghai should fair relatively better as it will take 15 months to clear inventory based on 2008 take-up rate.Chengdu&Chongqing also face inventory pressure which should take>24 months to clear according to Hopefluent.
尽管2009年的供给可能超过需求,合富辉煌预计,通过有限的降价,新的住宅销售面积仍将达到650-720万平米,较往年增长20%-33%.合富辉煌预测,总共将有8万套可销售(包括3万套存量房和5万套新增供应),这高于2008年6万套的需求量.新的住宅供给将以中小户型为主,其中90平米以下户型数量过半.合富辉煌预测今年广州市的新住宅销售均价将为8500元/平米,较去年下降10%.位于市区、售价合理的项目将有较大需求.例如,2009年2月,位于海珠区(市区内)的光大花园楼盘在一天之内以1万-1.2万元/平米的均价售出了400套住宅.
在我们调查的开发商中,合景泰富地产公司和广州富力地产在广州最有影响力,其土地存量中,分别有40%和14%的面积位于广州,其土地存量价值中,分别有超过50%和21%位于广州.
北京地产北京那个持续降价.合富辉煌预计北京的存量房将需要超过24个月的时间才能售完(基于2008年的销售率),这在重点城市中是最长的时间.这些住房连同经济适用房供应一道,将使得北京的住房价格面临巨大压力.在未来3年内,将有约8.5万平米经济适用房被开发,其中2百万平米将于2009年完工.这大致相当于2007年总市场需求量的12%,其大小不容忽视.最近,合生创展集团将朝阳区市区内的Grand Joviality楼盘的48套住房均价下调30%,达到1.6万元/平米.在重点城市中,广州和上海情况相对较好,根据2008年的销售率,将需要15个月售完存量房.成都和重庆也面临存量房压力,根据合富辉煌计算,将需要超过24个月才能售完存量房.