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Will oil be the kiss of death for recovery?
The price of oil has suddenly broken higher – to the point where triple-digit crude is once again in the offing.
This week oil climbed to $87 a barrel, its highest level since October 2008. This was after a period of eight months when oil traded between $70 and $80, a narrow band that pleased oil producers without hurting consumers too much.
The latest surge seems to have been prompted by rising confidence in a global economic recovery, even if most traders and bankers are still cautious about supply and demand fundamentals. The more bullish Wall Street banks see prices climbing further, with Barclays Capital forecasting $97, Goldman Sachs $110 and Morgan Stanley $100 next year.
But the higher prices go, the deeper the concerns that they will stifle global growth. Jeff Rubin, a former CIBC chief economist and author of a book on oil and globalization, says: “Triple-digit oil prices are going to threaten a world recovery.”
Pricier oil and other key commodities, notably iron ore and copper, could ripple through the economy and financial markets, potentially triggering inflation and forcing central banks to lift interest rates from ultra-low levels. This could force bond yields higher, but lower the attractions of equities.
However, higher oil prices could lift energy shares. In the S&P 500 index, the energy sector is up just 2.4 per cent this year and was barely positive in the first quarter, lagging behind the index's 6 per cent gain for the year.
Nicholas Colas, ConvergEx Group chief market strategist, says: “With crude oil prices marching steadily higher, portfolio exposure to the energy sector could well become a key determinant of overall investment performance through the balance of 2010.”
Oil prices first hit $100 a barrel in January 2008, before continuing their rapid ascent to peak at $147 in July of that year. They fell to a low of $32 in December 2008, before recovering again. Yesterday oil traded at about $85 a barrel.
The latest rise comes as the economic recovery fuels a jump in oil demand after the first global decline in a quarter century. Supply is not a worry, as the Opec oil cartel has more than 6m b/d of capacity to spare in a pinch.
One difference from last year is that then the oil price was rising against the backdrop of a weaker dollar. This year crude and the dollar have risen together.
Policymakers seem untroubled. Energy ministers at the International Energy Forum in Mexico last week embraced less volatility, not lower prices. Lawrence Summers, director of the US National Economic Council, in remarks this week bemoaned his country's dependence on foreign oil supplies, but did not complain about prices.
Some economists do not view $80 oil as a threat to global growth, which the International Monetary Fund projects at 4 per cent this year. James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, is author of a paper that found oil's 2008 surge to $147 a barrel helped tip a housing-led slowdown into a recession. This time, the relatively steady nature of the price rebound has allowed consumers to adjust.
“The shock value is gone now,” Prof Hamilton says.
Hussein Allidina, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says the $100 oil he predicts next year would increase the “oil burden” – a function of demand, prices and global output – to about 4 per cent from 2.8 per cent late last year. This would hurt developed economies more than emerging ones, as the latter are powering global growth and can afford fuel subsidies, he says. The IMF estimates consumer petroleum subsidies will reach almost $250bn this year.
“If we were to move to $100 a barrel, economic growth would start to slow, but ‘derail' is likely too strong a word,” Mr Allidina says.
A move to higher oil prices would not necessarily generate corresponding gains in retail fuel prices, as new refining capacity has made petrol markets more competitive. In the US, filling stations in most states still sell petrol for less than $3 a gallon, well below the peak of 2008. In the UK, however, petrol prices are close to record highs, even though crude is well below its peak.
In any case, prices are as much an effect of the economic expansion as a threat to it. China, the fastest-growing economy, is alone expected to consume 520,000 b/d more this year than last, contributing a third of global demand growth, according to International Energy Agency estimates.
“You can't have a global recovery without the oil price recovering as well,” says Lutz Kilian, a University of Michigan economist who has studied the effects of oil shocks. Because demand is fuelling prices, “the only way to keep oil prices down is to remain in a recession, which hardly sounds attractive”.
The prospect of higher prices is still alarming to many observers. Olivier Jakob, of Swiss consultant Petromatrix, said in a note that the “recovery of 2009 was fuelled with crude oil at $62 a barrel, not at $90 a barrel or $100 a barrel. We fear that the latest run on WTI will be the kiss of death for a global economy that was trying to avoid the possibility of a double-dip recession.”
When oil prices last surged to $100 a barrel in late 2007, US and other rich-country consumers blunted the impact by drawing on home-equity loans and credit cards to finance petrol purchases, says David Greely, energy economist at Goldman Sachs.
“It does raise the issue if we're in a much more credit constrained world going forward, are consumers able to do that or will they be more sensitive?” he asks
高油价：死亡之吻？
油价突然之间已经破位上行，三位数水平似乎再度触手可及。
上周油价升至每桶87美元，为2008年10月以来的最高水平。此前8个月，油价一直运行在70-80美元这个狭窄区间内，这一价位既让石油生产国满意，也不至于给石油消费国造成太大损害。
最新这轮涨势似乎是受到人们对全球经济复苏的信心日增的推动，尽管多数交易员和银行家对供需基本面依然抱着谨慎看法。较为乐观的华尔街银行预计油价将进一步上涨，其中巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)预计明年油价会涨到97美元，高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计会涨到110美元，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预计涨到100美元。
然而，油价涨得越高，人们就越是担心它会扼杀全球增长。加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)前首席经济学家杰夫•鲁宾(Jeff Rubin)表示：“油价如达到三位数水平，将危及全球复苏。”鲁宾写有一本论述石油与全球化的著作。
石油及其它主要大宗商品（尤其是铁矿石和铜）价格上涨，可能对经济和金融市场产生连锁反应，触发通胀，迫使各央行提高目前处于极低水平的利率。这可能推高债券收益率，但会降低股票的吸引力。
不过，油价上涨会利好能源股。在标普500指数中，能源板块今年以来仅上涨2.4%，其中在首季只是勉强维持上涨，而整体指数今年迄今已上涨6%。
ConvergEx Group首席策略师尼古拉斯•克拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示：“随着原油价格稳步走高，投资组合中的能源股敞口，很可能成为决定今年余下时间总体投资表现的一个关键因素。”
油价第一次触及每桶100美元是在2008年1月。其后油价继续快速上行，至当年7月于147美元见顶。2008年12月，油价跌至32美元低点，后来再度回升。上周四油价处于每桶85美元附近。
这次油价上涨的背景是：全球经济在度过25年来的首次衰退后，出现复苏，推动石油需求大幅增长。供应面没有问题，石油卡特尔组织欧佩克(Opec)必要时可立即启用逾600万桶/日的富余产能。
与去年不同的一点是，当时油价上涨发生在美元走弱的背景下，而今年石油和美元一起上涨。
各国政策制定者似乎没有觉得不安。最近在墨西哥举行的国际能源论坛(International Energy Forum)上，各国能源部长感到欢欣的是油价波动减小，而非价格走低。美国国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主任劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)上周发表讲话时，哀叹美国过度依赖外国石油，但没有抱怨油价。
一些经济学家不认为每桶80美元的油价会对全球增长构成威胁。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计今年全球经济将增长4%。加州大学圣迭戈分校的经济学家詹姆斯•汉密尔顿(James Hamilton)在一篇论文中指出，2008年油价飙升至每桶147美元，对住宅市场引发的经济放缓演变成衰退起到了推波助澜的作用。这次油价回升的势头相对平稳，让消费者能够适应。
“现在冲击力消失了，”汉密尔顿表示。
摩根士丹利大宗商品策略师侯赛因•阿里迪纳(Hussein Allidina)预计明年油价将达到每桶100美元水平。他表示，这将导致“石油负担”(oil burden)，即石油需求、价格与全球产出之间的一个函数，从去年底的2.8%升至4%左右。他说，发达经济体从中受到的损害将大于发展中经济体，因为后者正在推动全球增长，而且有能力发放燃油补贴。IMF估计，今年石油消费补贴总额将接近2500亿美元。
如果油价升至每桶100美元，经济增长将开始放缓，但若说‘破坏'就可能言过其辞了，” 阿里迪纳表示。
随着新增炼油产能使汽油市场竞争加剧，原油价格上涨未必会带动燃油零售价相应幅度的上涨。在美国多数州的加油站，汽油售价仍不到每加仑3美元，远低于2008年时的峰值。不过，在英国，汽油价格接近历史高位，尽管原油价格远低于历史最高水平。
总之，油价既受到经济扩张的推动，也对经济扩张构成威胁。据国际能源机构(IEA)估计，在全球增长最快的经济体中国，今年石油日消费量将同比增加52万桶，占全球需求增量的三分之一。
“在全球复苏的形势下，油价不可能不回升，”研究过石油冲击影响的密歇根大学经济学家卢茨•基连(Lutz Kilian)表示。因为需求正在推高价格，“要使油价保持在低位，唯一的办法是让经济继续维持衰退，这听上去一点都不吸引人。”
不过，油价上涨的前景仍让许多观察家感到担心。瑞士咨询公司Petromatrix的奥利维尔•雅各布(Olivier Jakob)在一份研究简报中称：“2009年的复苏是由每桶62美元的原油推动的，不是每桶90美元、也不是每桶100美元。我们担心，对于正在设法避免双底衰退的全球经济来说，WTI(西德克萨斯州中质原油)的最新走势将是死亡之吻。”
高盛能源经济学家戴维•格瑞利(David Greely)表示，上次油价在2007年底逼近100美元时，美国及其它富裕国家的消费者使用房屋净值贷款和信用卡支付汽油费用，淡化了油价上涨的影响。
“现在面临一个问题，如果今后信贷紧缩状况明显超过以往，消费者还能这么做吗，或者他们将变得更加敏感？”